This text first appeared in West Level’s Fashionable Battle Institute. 
We simply accomplished the fourth week of our new nationwide safety class at Stanford – Expertise, Innovation and Nice Energy Competitors. Joe Felter, Raj Shah and I designed the category to cowl how expertise will form all the weather of nationwide energy (America’s affect and footprint on the world stage).
In class 1, we realized that nationwide energy is the mixture of a rustic’s diplomacy (tender energy and alliances), data/intelligence, navy energy, financial power, finance, intelligence, and regulation enforcement. This “complete of presidency strategy” is thought by the acronym DIME-FIL. And after twenty years centered on counter terrorism, the U.S. is now engaged in nice energy competitors with each China and Russia.
At school 2 the category centered on China, the U.S.’s major nice energy competitor. China is utilizing all components of nationwide energy: diplomacy (tender energy, alliances, coercion), data/ intelligence (utilizing its financial leverage over Hollywood, controlling the Covid narrative), its navy would possibly and financial power (Belt and Highway Initiative) in addition to exploiting Western finance and expertise. China’s objective is to problem and overturn the U.S.-led liberal worldwide order and change it with a neo-totalitarian mannequin.
The third class centered on Russia, which is asserting itself as a terrific energy challenger. We realized how Russia pursues safety and financial pursuits in parallel with its ideological goals. At occasions, these aims complement one another. At different occasions they conflict, Putin’s want to revive Russia into a terrific energy as soon as once more results in a international coverage that’s reverse the pursuits of the Russia individuals. As Putin himself has mentioned, “The collapse of the Soviet Union was a serious geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” and that quote provides a window to his worldview as he tries to remake Russia into a terrific energy as soon as once more.”
Having coated the weather of nationwide energy (DIME-FIL) and China and Russia, the category now shifts to the affect business applied sciences have on DIME-FIL. At this time’s subject – Semiconductors.
Meet up with the category by studying our intro to the category, and summaries of Courses 1, 2 and 3.
Class 4 Required Readings:
Silicon Valley, the Navy, and the Journey to the Fourth Industrial Revolution
- Steve Clean, “The Secret Historical past of Silicon Valley” Steve Clean, November 20, 2008. [Please watch the video, review the slides and blog posts]
- Klaus Schwab, “The Fourth Industrial Revolution: What it Means, the best way to Reply” World Financial Discussion board, Jan. 14, 2016.
- Elective Rebecca S. Lowen, Creating the Chilly Battle College [Great book if you want to learn more about Stanford’s military-industrial complex origins. Not required for class.]
Moore’s Regulation & the World Semiconductor Business
- Lee Bell, “What’s Moore’s Regulation? WIRED Explains the Principle that Outlined the Tech Business” WIRED, Aug. 28, 2016.
- INTERACTIVE CHART “Common Value of Exhausting Drive Storage per Gigabyte 1980-2014” Human Progress.
- Steve Clean, “Chip Business Tutorial” Stanford Gordian Knot Heart for Nationwide Safety Innovation, September 2021.
- “Semiconductors: Expertise and Market Primer 10.0” Oppenheimer, Dec. 7, 2017
- James Timbie, “Nationwide Safety Provide Chain Resilience” The Hoover Establishment, Feb 5, 2021.
- Yan Nee Lee, “2 Charts Present how A lot the World Relies on Taiwan for Semiconductors” CNBC, Mar. 15, 2021.
- Karen M. Sutter, “China’s New Semiconductor Insurance policies: Points for Congress” Congressional Analysis Service, Apr. 20, 2021.
- Video: The US Navy’s Semiconductor Shopping for Downside, Asianometry
Semiconductor Case Examine
- Andrew Inkpen, “The World Semiconductor Business” Thunderbird College of Administration, 2021. [It is imperative to prepare the case for class]
- Harvard Enterprise College TSMC Case Examine
Studying Task Questions:
Decide one of many under questions and reply in roughly 100 phrases, based mostly on the required readings. Please be aware that this project will probably be graded and depend in direction of course participation.
- Describe the roles of Fred Terman, William Shockley, and Fairchild Semiconductor within the genesis of Silicon Valley. Who had a higher function in creating Silicon Valley, Fred Terman or the Traitorous Eight?
- How would you characterize China’s try to catch-up within the semiconductor trade? Do you assume China can credibly catch TSMC (with out an invasion of Taiwan)? Why or why not?
Dialogue Questions
- Put your self within the sneakers of Mark Liu, chairman of TSMC: Do you view China as extra of a competitor or buyer – and why?
- Now think about you’re the NSC Senior Director with duty for expertise technique. What’s the very first thing the U.S. Gov’t ought to do concerning semiconductors?
Class 4: Visitor Speaker
Our visitor speaker for our fourth class was John Hurley, former Member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, an knowledgeable on semiconductors and provide chains, and former Captain, U.S. Military.
Lecture 4
If you happen to can’t see the slides, click on right here
Slide 4. The crucial function of semiconductors in nice energy competitors. Each our business and navy techniques are depending on semiconductors. China spends extra on semiconductor imports than it does on oil. We framed the advances in expertise as a part of the 4th industrial revolution. Slides 5-7. We reminded the scholars of the function the DoD and IC performed at Stanford turning it into an outward-facing college, which kick-started expertise entrepreneurship right here in Silicon Valley.
Slides 11th of September Twin-use expertise. For the primary time in 75 years, federal labs and our prime contractors are not main innovation in lots of crucial applied sciences together with AI, machine studying, autonomy, biotech, business entry to area, and so forth. Fast advances in these areas at the moment are taking place through business corporations – many in China. It is a radical change in the place superior expertise comes from. Within the U.S., the federal government is painfully studying the best way to reorient its necessities and acquisition course of to purchase these business, off-the-shelf applied sciences. (Merchandise which can be bought commercially and to the DoD are known as “dual-use.”)
Slide 15. Semiconductor trade. We started a deep dive into semiconductors by drawing the map of the semiconductor trade (Slides 3-15 from this required studying.) 5 corporations present nearly all of the wafer fab gear wanted to make chips. TSMC is the main fab for manufacturing logic chips. (Slides 32-33 from this required studying.) Of the 29 new fabs beginning building in 2021-22, over half are in China and Taiwan.
Slide 16. TSMC Case. We took the category by the TSMC case examine and mapped out the roles and pursuits of TSMC, China, Intel, and the U.S. Slides 17-18. We mentioned China’s drive for semiconductor independence, U.S. export controls on Huawei (why and its penalties,) the assorted constituencies of a U.S. semiconductor coverage (Commerce Division, DoD, U.S. chip makers, U.S. semi gear suppliers, and so forth.), whether or not TSMC’s success makes Taiwan roughly safe, given China’s targets of reunification with Taiwan.
Slide 19-20. Coverage. How do resolution makers formulate coverage? Does it begin by asking “What downside can we wish to remedy?” Utilizing semiconductors for example, is it China’s entry to U.S. expertise? Or is it China embedding this superior U.S.-designed expertise into their navy techniques? Or what occurs to TSMC and Western entry to superior expertise if China quarantines or invades Taiwan?
How do coverage makers choose and slim an issue? Is it based mostly on the worth the coverage provides for recognized stakeholders? Is it a private ardour/curiosity? Particularly for China and semiconductors, what are potential answer concepts? Export controls? Stronger CFIUS laws? How do you keep in mind stakeholder suggestions (DoD, Commerce Division, business corporations)? And when you create a coverage, how do you successfully implement it?
Slide 21 -23. Class midterm project: Assume you’re a coverage maker. Write a 2,000-word coverage memo that describes how a U.S. competitor is utilizing a selected expertise (semiconductors, AI, autonomy, cyber, and so forth.) to counter U.S. pursuits. Suggest how the U.S. ought to reply.
Slides 25- 32 Group Tasks. We had a number of groups speak about their learnings from their out-of-the constructing interviews. Workforce ShortCircuit (Slide 29) is engaged on how the U.S. ought to enhance its capacity to design and produce semiconductors, and develop and retain related expertise. They heard from a professor that the ratio of Stanford college students taking software program versus {hardware} programs was 10-to-1 software program, a whole reversal from many years in the past. We mentioned whether or not 1) that was true or simply anecdotal 2) if true, was it the identical in different analysis universities, 3) why it occurred (software program startups are getting funded at obscene valuations)? 4) and what sort of incentives and insurance policies could be wanted to alter that, and 5) the place within the worth chain these could be best (college students, enterprise capitalists, authorities, and so forth.)
Subsequent week: Synthetic Intelligence / Machine Studying
Classes Realized
- Semiconductors are the oil of the 21st All economies run on them.
- Semiconductors are China’s greatest imports
- China’s roadmap for constructing an indigenous semiconductor trade and accelerating chip manufacturing is the Nationwide Built-in Circuit Plan
- The objective is to satisfy its native chip demand by 2030
- The U.S. depends on TSMC, situated in Taiwan, for its most superior logic chips
- China claims Taiwan is a province of China
- TSMC will construct a fab in Arizona, however it’ll signify solely 2% of its capability
- What are U.S. coverage makers’ choices?
11/02/2021 Expertise, Innovation, and Nice Energy Competitors – Class 4 – Semiconductors
